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SOWIE - system for wind power forecasting

(accredited acc. to DIN EN ISO/IEC 17025:2005)

Accredited simulation model for the online forecast of wind power generation

For Germany and Europe EuroWind provides you eight times a day with a 180 hour prediction of the wind power generation. Amongst others, the data is available via the web terminal spotrenewables.com, anywhere and at any time. Our in-house forecasting system SOWIE, that we use for this purpose, is the first and only internationally accredited wind power forecasting system world-wide. This guarantees our first class, independently monitored forecast accuracy as well as a maximum availability and reliability.

The recent implementation of our wind power forecasts into the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® service evidence the superior relevance of EuroWind forecasts in the energy trading sector.

The advantages for our clients are a higher precision in scheduling in the field of the power plant resource scheduling as well as concerning the trade in electricity at the international energy exchanges, as for example the EEX, Powernext, Nord Pool, etc.

Learn more about the internationally accredited wind power forecasting system SOWIE:
Advantages
Procedures
Validation
Results
Details of our wind power forecasting service

The advantages of the accredited wind power forecasting with SOWIE at a glance
Permanently safeguarded maximum data quality and -availability due to the application of the one-of-a-kind system SOWIE, which is accredited according to DIN EN ISO/IEC 17025:2005
Implementation of the high resolution operational forecast models COSMO-EU, HIRLAM, and GFS
Comprehension of a permanently updated data base including the site specifications of all wind turbines which are currently installed in Germany and Europe for a statistic optimum forecast of wind power output
High accuracy of wind energy forecast, taking into account the complex flow dynamics in the low mountain ranges or the specific conditions at offshore sites
180-hour wind power forecasting horizon
World-wide wind power forecasting, also for individual wind farms or transmission grid areas
Continuous updating of the wind power forecast at least every 6 hours (4 to 8 times a day)
Continuous optimization of the wind power forecast by means of updated production data
Custom file formats, as e.g. XML-, EXCEL-, CSV- or ACSII
Data access via web terminal spotrenewables.com, FTP upload and/or email supply, or alternatively via your BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® Service
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Procedure

The procedure is based on the complex meteorological forecast models HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) of the Dutch weather service and GFS (Global Forecast System) of the American weather service. Out of them, high resolution three-dimensional wind- and temperature forecasts are coupled with a data base of all installed wind turbines and with a module for wind power computation (figure 1). The forecast model HIRLAM is working with a grid resolution of about 10 kilometers.

On the basis of the data base of all currently operating wind turbines it is possible to transfer the forecast values, derived from HIRLAM and GFS, to each individual wind farm site. Thereby the individual characteristics of the vertical wind profile in the ground layer and the corresponding hub height of the wind turbine are taken into account.

Ficure 1: Schematic illustration of the three components of the model chain SOWIE (in this example illustrated for HIRLAM)

By using the turbine specific power curve, the energy yield for a forecasting horizon of 180 hours is computed for each wind turbine seperately. Besides the shut down of wind turbines in the case of stormy weather conditions also yield losses caused by deposits of rime on the rotor blades can be forecasted. Thus, for you, being the grid operator, we can exactly predict the power generation of individual wind farms or also determine the wind power output for individually configured areas.

Our accredited program system SOWIE is additionally used world-wide. For this purpose a comprehensive and permanently updated data base with information of all operating wind turbines within Europe and North America is used.
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Validation

The high accuracy in forecasts of SOWIE is proven by numerous validation results as well as by the regular and independent survey by the Deutsches Akkreditierungssystem Prüfwesen GmbH (DAP). Additionally, the development of our forecast accuracy is continuously monitored and recorded by German transmission system operators (cf. figure 2).

Figure 2: Improvement of the quality of the wind power forecast by forecasting system SOWIE
Für Vollansicht bitte auf das Bild klicken

The comparison between measured and simulated production data is proving the high quality of our wind power forecast with a good conformity. For example the monthly sum of the computed wind power for an exposed wind farm in the Hochschwarzwald (Black forest) is only about 2 % below the reported production data (cf. figure 3).

Figure 3: Comparison of the measured and simulated performance (wind power forecast) for a wind farm in the Hochschwarzwald (Black Forest)
To zoom the view, please click on the picture
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Results

Figures 4 and 5 show examples of the wind power forecast for the whole of Europe as well as for Spain and its provinces for a certain prognosis date. Besides the forecasted wind power generation, the corresponding load percentage of the existing turbines is indicated in percent. Charts (cf. figure 1) and tables (e.g. Excel-sheet or XML file) with the precise production numbers can be accessed via the web terminal.

Figure 4: Europe-wide wind power forecasting Figure 5: Wind power forecasting for Spain and provinces

If we have sparken your interest, please do not hesitate to contact us. We would be pleased to explain you the specialities and possibilities of our range of services and our internationally accredited wind power forecasting system SOWIE in person.

Call +49 221 57 95 60-09 for personal assistence!








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