You are at:   Home > Services > Wind derivates

WIND DERIVATES

Risk management with wind derivates

The wind energy industry has realized the necessity of an active management of risks by variations in the wind conditions. This point is of special interest for the wind farm operators since the wind power production is of course submitted to natural variations. Related to the operation of wind farms a partial transfer of the wind risk to a contract partner allows the financial covering and stabilization of future profits.

The EuroWind GmbH delivers for that purpose a statistically covered risk analysis for any wind farms throughout the whole of Europe. By means of the high resolution EuroWindindex we can furthermore offer Europe-wide a complete independent index size for the wind derivate trade which complies with both demands, those of the banks as well as those of the wind farm operators.
zoom

zoom
This risk analysis performed by the EuroWind in the Northern Egge Mountains clarifies the occurrence of heavy variations of the average wind speed depending on the orographic conditions. In this case important speed differences can occur at the measuring stations (Bad Lippspringe) and the wind farm (Altenbeken-Buke). Especially when the measuring stations are far from the wind farm which needs to be secured the wind conditions at the wind farm site are only insufficiently represented by wind measurements. With the help of our three-dimensional flow model we are able to calculate the wind conditions reliably even at large distances from the measuring site. To do so, firstly a representative wind distribution in the height will be calculated from the ground wind statistics for the model area. With the help of the height wind rose and the known relation between the high and ground winds resulting from the simulations the corresponding ground wind distribution can be made up for any coordinate.

Concerning the principle of wind derivates...
The EuroWindindex being an independent revenue index size...
Risk analysis for the wind farms...


Concerning the principle of wind derivates

Wind derivate belongs to the family of weather derivates which are used for the hedging of weather risks in companies. The weather decisively influences the profit of innumerous companies. Among them rank for example beer gardens, leisure parks, energy suppliers and also wind farm operators. By buying a corresponding wind derivate with a supplier, the companies can ensure themselves against weather risks such as for instance rain fall/snow fall/hale, too low temperatures or too little wind.

Contrary to commonly traded derivates at the stock exchange (Options, Swaps)
to ensure exchange, interest or currency risks, the wind derivates will ensure so called volume risks, i.e. revenue and sales risks which are resulting from certain weather conditions. Data of a measurable meteorological size (e. g. temperature, wind) at a certain place or an index which can be calculated from those parameters is underlying each wind derivate. If the underlying is concerning wind speed or wind index, it is called a wind derivate. The owner of a wind derivate will be paid a determined index size (strike) e. g. a certain wind speed, a nominal amount (tick size) for each index point falling below (refer to graph 1) if the value falls below the predefined index size. Related to the operation of the wind farm this way a partial transfer of the wind risk to a contract partner (derivate supplier) a financial hedging and a stabilization of future profits is allowed.
Graph 1: Long put weather option to hedge a wind farm against revenue losses due to situations of low wind.
top


The EuroWindindex being an independent revenue index size

To hedge the wind farm against wind losses detailed information about the wind conditions at the wind farm site are required. Since independent wind measurements for the wind farm which needs to be hedged are generally not available, the derivate supplier prefers to offer contracts which are based on the wind measured data of the encasement meteorological measuring stations (Underlying). This fact will make the purchase of a wind derivate generally unattractive for wind farm operators since the wind conditions at the weather station reflect the conditions of their wind farm only insufficiently. The general problem that an underlying in form of a meteorological site are also the insufficient options up to now to clearly record respectively measure such sizes as the site if the wind farm.

The EuroWind GmbH has attended this problem and has developed the Euro Windindex. The index distinguishes itself by its 100 percent independency from revenue data and measured data of commercial suppliers. The bases for the data are exclusively wind measured data of the international weather services such as e.g. the Deutsch Wetterdienst (German weather service). In order to calculate the index the wind information are transformed to the wind farm site by our complex three dimensional flow model. The EuroWindindex resulting hereof specially describes the wind conditions compared to the long term average for the wind farm site which needs to be evaluated and which is affected by the local orographical structure. Furthermore the Euro Windindex can be used in order to climatologically reference the existing timely limited wind measuring or production data of the farm. The resulting information can in addition be statistically prepared for the derivate trade. Due to this proceeding also the demands of the wind farm operator can be best fulfilled for the first time.

Due to our proceeding we can offer a complete independent revenue index size for the wind derivate trade which corresponds to both requirements those of the banks as well as those of the wind farm operator at the same time.
Graph 2: Area distribution of the site related Euro Windindex for an example month and in order to calculate the used measuring stations of the European weather service (red dots).
top

Risk analysis for wind farms

The price or the prime of a special wind derivate adapted to the wind farm conditions is mainly depending on the variations of the wind offer at the site which needs to be hedged. A realistic evaluation of the risk therefore needs to be based on long term independent data which objectively reflect the wind conditions at the wind farm site.

The EuroWind GmbH delivers with the help of a comprehensive data archive the site related Euro Windindex for a long term climatologically term. A detailed statistic evaluation of the revenue index allows a detailed risk analysis for any wind farm throughout the whole of Europe. Due to the high accuracy of the wind farm specific risk analysis the information which is required for the derivate trade such as prime, tick size, cap or strike can be optimally determined.
Graph 3: Example of the statistic variation of the site related energy revenue of a wind farm in the northern Egge Mountains.
top


Proceeding a risk analysis

Firstly the measured wind statistic of the nearest approved measuring station is being evaluated. Then the wind statistic will be transformed with the help of high resolution digital territory data of the NASA and our three dimensional flow model to the coordinates of the wind farm. With a correlation analysis of the wind farm specific wind statistics with the site related Euro Windindex the statistic uncertainty of the index can be evaluated. If additional revenue or availability data are available for the wind farm which needs to be analyzed, the operating data will be climatologically referenced. With it,it is possible to check the average energy production indicated in the wind expertise. Furthermore with the help of the gross farm revenue data, you can perform additional validations of the Euro Windindex and this way you can further reduce the statistic uncertainty. Finally the meteorological risk analysis is being established on the basis of the long term statistic distribution of the Euro Windindex.

For the wind farm specific risk analysis we are using the following data:
Digital SRTM territory data of the NASA
  Measured wind statistics*
  Revenue data of the wind farm
  Territory height of the wind farm
  Configuration of the wind farm
  Plant type with coordinates
  * If there are no wind measuring available for the wind farm which needs to be hedged an areal transferring of the wind statistics is being performed.
Scope of services of risk analysis
Site related statistic analysis of the energy revenue of the wind farm
Average farm revenue index (EuroWindindex)
Maximum farm revenue index (EuroWindindex)
Minimum farm revenue index (EuroWindindex)
Standard deviation of a farm revenue index (EuroWindindex)
90%, 95%, 98% percentile values
Correlation analysis for reference sites

If we have arousen your interest, please do not hesitate to contact us.
We will be glad to explain you the specialities and possibilities of our range of services in personal meeting.

If we have sparken your interest, please do not hesitate to contact us. We would be pleased to explain you the specialities and possibilities of our range of services and our internationally accredited wind energy forecast in person.

Call +49 221 57 95 60-09 for personal assistence!








top

 
Copyright © 2001-2014 EuroWind GmbH. All rights reserved. | Contact | Imprint | Sitemap |

Erektionsmittel, Potenzpillen und Potenzmittel Viagra, Cialis, Levitra und Kamagra ohne Rezept in Deutschland bestellen online. Potenzmittel rezeptfrei mit Viagra, Cialis, Levitra und Kamagra kaufen.